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We must ensure the success of The Great Green Wall if we are to tackle the ecological and social challenges in The Sahel
An ambitious project is taking root in the Sahel region of Africa.
Named the ‘Great Green Wall’, a vast stretch of trees is in the process of being planted across the width of the continent. The primary goal is to stop the expansion of the Sahara Desert and to mitigate the impacts of climate change in the region. Other intended benefits include increased food security, the provision of new job opportunities and the fostering of a better quality of life for millions of Africans.
The Great Green Wall is certainly an ambitious undertaking. If successful, however, it holds the potential to turn an arid and environmentally degraded region of the world into the largest living structure on the planet, three times the size of the Great Barrier Reef. It will restore 100 million hectares of degraded land, sequester 250 million tonnes of carbon and create an estimated 10 million jobs. Already 15% underway, the project’s development to date has seemed promising.
The project’s importance is heightened by a simple reality; the Sahel is a region in desperate need of transformation. Already bearing the brunt of global challenges such as climate change, millions of people are being impacted by droughts, a lack of food, and dwindling natural resources.
Unfortunately, progress on this potentially transformational project has stalled as a result of one of the region’s increasingly familiar foes – terrorism.
It has been reported that security concerns are proving to be a significant barrier to progress in almost 4,000 villages across Burkina Faso. Work across Sudan, Ethiopia, Mali, Chad, Niger and Nigeria has also been affected.
Terrorism in the Sahel has been on the rise for the past 15 years, with deaths at the hands of insurgent groups in 2021 ten times higher than they were in 2017. In fact, the region is now home to the world’s fastest growing and most-deadly terrorist groups, with deaths in the Sahel making up 35 per cent of all terror related deaths globally, up from just 1 per cent in 2007.
Now, these groups may become responsible for further deaths through their disruption of the lifesaving ecological developments that the Great Green Wall hopes to deliver.
Contributing to the complex security situation in the area is the lack of a regional leader in the battle against terror. Burkina Faso and Mali are both facing severe political instability. Ghana, to the West, is on the brink of a catastrophic sovereign debt crisis. Other countries, such as Niger, do not have the resources to take on the challenge.
Ostensibly, the best choice is Nigeria. With a population of over 200 million, relatively wealthy compared to many of its neighbours, and home to a vibrant, functioning, and stable democracy, the country seems to be best placed to tackle the problem.
But things are not so straightforward.
The nation is currently fighting several high-profile and potentially ruinous court cases around the world. Most notably, Nigeria is involved in a complicated dispute with Process & Industrial Developments (P&ID). The dispute stems from a contract between the Nigerian government and P&ID dating back to 2010, in which P&ID agreed to build a gas processing plant.
The promised gas plant never materialised, and P&ID began arbitration proceedings against the Nigerian government for breach of contract. The arbitration, which was held in London behind closed doors, found in favour of P&ID and ordered the Nigerian government to pay P&ID USD 6.6 billion plus approximately USD 1 million a day in interest. At the time of writing, the total award stands at roughly USD 10 billion.
The Nigerian government has since uncovered evidence that the contract was procured through fraud and bribery.
Ignoring existential threats from terror groups for a moment, Nigeria is reportedly already struggling to keep up with the demands of the Great Green Wall development, which once complete will cover around 35% of the nation’s landmass.
The enforcement of a USD 10 billion USD arbitral award will serve only to exacerbate the country’s struggle and could prevent the country from taking on the responsibility of securing the Great Green Wall the future.
Ambitious environmental projects, such as the Great Green Wall, should be supported, nurtured, and encouraged. Their transformative potential extends beyond the ecological into the social. Their importance should only grow as we look to tackle the most pressing challenges of the 21st century. The idea that their progress could be jeopardised by organisations like P&ID, themselves backed by vulture funds and opaque companies registered in tax havens, is grossly unjust.
Fortunately, it looks as though justice will be served for Nigeria. In an unprecedented move, the London Commercial Court ruled in September 2020 that Nigeria could challenge the arbitral award with the judge noting strong prima facie evidence of a massive fraud had been uncovered. The trial will be heard before the High Court in January 2023.
The environmental and social are closely intertwined, and initiatives to support one will, more often than not, bring about huge positive change in the other. Perhaps the Great Green Wall will play its own part in helping to secure the Sahel from terror – but we must ensure it is first able to be completed.
