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Nigeria exported 55.39 million barrels of crude oil in the first two months of 2026, highlighting a widening imbalance between rising export flows and persistent domestic supply shortages affecting its largest refinery.
Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria showed that exports totalled 31.31 million barrels in January and 24.08 million barrels in February.
Average daily production stood at 1.46 million barrels in January and 1.31 million barrels in February, while export levels averaged 1.01 million barrels per day and 0.86 million barrels per day, respectively.
Overall production for the two months reached 81.94 million barrels, leaving 26.55 million barrels for local refining. The figures underscore ongoing tensions between export commitments and domestic industrial demand, particularly from the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
The $20bn Lekki-based refinery has repeatedly reported insufficient crude supply from domestic producers, forcing it to supplement feedstock with imports from international markets despite Nigeria’s status as Africa’s largest oil producer.
The imbalance persists under the naira-for-crude arrangement, which is designed to prioritise local refining but continues to face implementation challenges. Industry stakeholders say a significant portion of crude output is still exported rather than directed to domestic refineries.
Between October 2025 and mid-March 2026, the Dangote refinery reportedly faced a crude shortfall of about 79.53 million barrels. Internal data indicate that the facility requires approximately 19.77 million barrels per month to operate at full capacity, but received far lower volumes during the period.
Monthly deliveries included 4.55 million barrels in October, 6.45 million in November, 4.30 million in December, 5.65 million in January, and 4.66 million in February, with 3.6 million barrels supplied in the first half of March. This translates to a supply performance of about 26.9 per cent against the estimated requirements of 108.74 million barrels.
“The refinery continues to operate below optimal capacity due to inadequate domestic crude supply, despite clear provisions under the Petroleum Industry Act prioritising local demand,” a senior refinery source told Punch.
Fuel pricing has also reflected the strain on supply chains. Petrol prices rose above N1,300 per litre (approximately $0.87 using an estimated exchange rate of 1,500 naira per US dollar), before easing to around N1,250 per litre (about $0.83).
The Dangote refinery has attributed the price volatility to insufficient domestic crude allocations. In a statement, it said it had been receiving “about five cargoes a month from NNPC, far below the 13 cargoes required,” adding that shipments were priced at international market rates despite being paid partly in naira.
It further stated that reliance on imported crude had increased costs because local upstream producers were not meeting their supply obligations under national regulations.
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited, however, said it was working to bridge supply gaps through international sourcing.
A senior official noted, “We are leveraging our global crude trading network to source third-party crude at competitive international market prices,” adding that the company remained committed to supporting domestic refining.
The official also pointed to historical crude sales commitments as a factor affecting short-term availability, though insisted that alternative sourcing strategies were being pursued.
Separately, Aliko Dangote confirmed that the refinery received 10 cargoes in March, up from an average of 5 cargoes per month since late 2024. However, this still fell short of operational requirements.
Industry groups, including the Crude Oil Refiners Association of Nigeria, have called for increased allocation to domestic refineries, arguing that a stable feedstock supply is essential for profitability and energy security.
As Nigeria balances export earnings with domestic industrialisation goals, the widening gap between crude production, exports, and local refining demand continues to draw scrutiny from stakeholders across the energy value chain.
