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The World Bank projects a growth of 4.7% for Guinea-Bissau’s economy in 2024, driven by a strong cashew campaign, but warns of climatic and political risks. The World Bank forecasts a 4.7% growth for Guinea-Bissau’s economy this year, attributed to the “strong cashew campaign.” However, the institution warns of risks associated with climate change and political instability.
“The first signs indicate a strong cashew campaign in 2024, which will support a growth of the Gross Domestic Product of 4.7%,” states the economic report of Spring on Guinea-Bissau, released by the World Bank.
This figure is slightly lower than the 5% forecasted by the International Monetary Fund in April.
According to the report accessed by Lusa, the production of cashew, Guinea-Bissau’s main export, is expected to be robust due to favorable climatic conditions and recent investments in agriculture. “Unlike the last two years, exports are expected to improve substantially due to the authorization of the use of land routes for export, combating trafficking,” adds the document.
However, the World Bank points out several risks to the Guinean economy, including political instability, shocks in the international cashew market, and climate change. “The constitutional crisis of December 2023 and the uncertainty in the electoral calendar caused political instability,” state the World Bank’s economists, emphasizing that “stability is crucial to maintain the authorities’ commitment to implementing a policy framework that includes fiscal consolidation and prudent borrowing, necessary to put public debt on a consistent downward trajectory and achieve medium-term debt sustainability.”
The Guinean parliament was dissolved on December 4 of the previous year, before the constitutional deadline, as it had been elected about six months before and the Fundamental Law stipulates a minimum term of 12 months.
After the dissolution of parliament by presidential decree, the Guinean head of state, Umaro Sissoco Embaló, dismissed the then Prime Minister, Geraldo Martins, after he refused to form a government of presidential initiative, appointing Rui Duarte de Barros in his place.
